In an unprecedented escalation of hostilities between neighboring countries, Pakistan and Iran have both executed strikes on each other’s territories. This comes at a time when tensions are escalating across the Middle East and beyond.

The shared volatile border, spanning about 900 kilometers (560 miles), places Pakistan’s Balochistan province on one side and Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province on the other.

Both nations have a history of combating militants in the turbulent Baloch region along the border. However, it is highly unusual for either side to launch attacks on militants within each other’s soil.

These recent strikes coincide with Iran’s allies and proxies in the Middle East, often referred to as the axis of resistance, launching attacks on Israeli forces and allies amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Here’s a breakdown of the events:

What happened?

The sequence of events unfolded on Tuesday when Iran conducted strikes on Pakistan’s Balochistan province, resulting in the tragic death of two children and injuries to several others, as reported by Pakistani authorities.

Iran asserted that it exclusively targeted Iranian terrorists on Pakistani soil, emphasizing that no Pakistani nationals were affected. However, Pakistan strongly condemned the strike as an egregious violation of international law and the spirit of bilateral relations.

According to Iran’s state-aligned Tasnim news agency, the strikes aimed at dismantling strongholds of the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, known as Jaish al-Dhulm or the Army of Justice in Iran. This separatist group operates on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border and has claimed responsibility for previous attacks against Iranian targets, aspiring to achieve independence for Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province.

In response, Pakistan conducted a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes on alleged separatist hideouts in Sistan and Baluchestan two days later. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the elimination of several militants, and at least 10 individuals, all Pakistani nationals, were reported dead, according to Tasnim.

Pakistan justified its actions by expressing long-standing concerns about separatist fighters finding safe havens and sanctuaries in Iran, compelling them to take matters into their own hands.

Why now?

The struggle between Pakistan and Iran against separatist elements on both sides of their borders is not a new development. However, the willingness of each side to target locations across the border without prior notification is highly unusual.

This situation unfolds against the backdrop of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, causing reverberations throughout the region. Experts suggest that the larger regional conflict might have emboldened Iran to proactively pursue targets beyond its borders. The United States, balancing the act of de-escalating hostilities while showcasing its military strength to deter further Iranian moves, adds complexity to the situation.

Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, emphasized that without condemnation of Iran and its proxies, there is no deterrent for them to continue their activities. He pointed out that Iran’s dominant position in the Middle East positions it to benefit from regional instability and fill power vacuums, especially in comparison to conflict-ridden nations like Yemen and Syria.

Retired US Army Gen. Wesley Clark, a former NATO supreme allied commander, suggested that Iran is striving to solidify its role as a leader in the region, seeking regional hegemony. The ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel against Hamas in Gaza prompts Iran to assert itself.

What’s behind the border conflict?

The Baloch people, residing at the meeting point of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, have historically displayed a fiercely independent streak and resentment toward being ruled by Islamabad and Tehran. Insurgencies have simmered across the porous border region for decades.

Rich in natural resources, the Balochistan region has seen little wealth trickle down to its communities, leading to grievances among the Baloch separatists. The largest province in Pakistan by area, Balochistan, has witnessed deadly attacks fueled by a decades-long insurgency demanding independence, accusing the state of monopolizing and exploiting the region’s mineral resources.

Iran, too, has faced insurgencies from its Kurdish, Arab, and Baloch minorities.

Jaish al-Adl is one among several separatist groups operating within Iran. Originally part of the larger Sunni militant group Jundallah, it emerged as Jaish al-Adl after the leader’s execution by Iran in 2010. Designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US State Department, Jaish al-Adl often targets Iranian security personnel, government officials, and Shia civilians.

The group claimed responsibility for various attacks, including an incident in 2015 where eight Iranian border guards were killed, and a 2019 suicide bombing targeting an Iranian military bus, resulting in at least 23 casualties in Sistan-Baluchestan.

Following Iran’s strikes on Pakistan, Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for an attack on an Iranian military vehicle in Sistan and Baluchestan.

What’s next?

The strikes on Tuesday prompted a diplomatic spat, with Pakistan recalling its ambassador from Iran and suspending high-level visits from its neighbor. Iran, in turn, demanded an immediate explanation from Pakistan and conducted a large-scale military exercise off its southwest coast.

International reactions ensued, with neighboring nations like Turkey, India, and China urging restraint and expressing concerns over the escalating violence in the Middle East.

US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller stressed the need for restraint, acknowledging the risk of increased conflict given the tensions in the region. However, he stated that the flare-up was not in any way connected to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

The intentions of Iran and Pakistan regarding a descent into full-blown hostilities over separatist groups remain unclear. Both nations issued statements suggesting a desire to avoid further escalation, emphasizing the need for joint solutions. Pakistan referred to Iran as a brotherly country, while Iran called Pakistan a friendly country and asserted that their strikes were proportionate and solely aimed at militants.

Retired US Army Gen. Wesley Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander, commented that Iran’s current hostilities indicate its ambition to solidify a leadership role in the region. He suggested that Iran seeks regional hegemony, particularly in response to the presence of the United States and Israel, especially during Israel’s campaign against Hamas.

Regarding the border conflict, the Baloch people, residing at the meeting point of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, have a history of independence and resentment toward rule by both Islamabad and Tehran. Insurgencies in the porous border region have persisted for decades. Despite the region’s richness in natural resources, Baloch separatists claim little economic benefit has reached their communities.

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province, has experienced deadly attacks fueled by a longstanding separatist insurgency, opposing what they see as the state’s exploitation of mineral resources. Iran, too, has faced insurgencies from various minorities, including the Baloch.

Jaish al-Adl, a separatist group within Iran, originated from the larger Sunni militant group Jundallah, which fractured in 2010 after its leader’s execution. Designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US State Department, Jaish al-Adl frequently targets Iranian security personnel, officials, and Shia civilians.

Recent developments involve Jaish al-Adl claiming responsibility for an attack on an Iranian military vehicle after Iran’s strikes on Pakistan.

Following Iran’s strikes, a diplomatic dispute unfolded, with Pakistan recalling its ambassador and suspending high-level visits. Iran demanded an explanation and conducted a large-scale military exercise. International responses, including from Turkey, India, China, and the European Union, urged restraint and expressed concern over escalating violence in the Middle East.

US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller urged restraint, emphasizing the risk of increased conflict given regional tensions. The motivations of Iran and Pakistan to avoid full-blown hostilities over separatist groups, which both consider enemies, remain unclear. Both nations, in their statements, expressed a desire to find joint solutions and emphasized their mutual regard as brotherly or friendly countries.